A Perfect Storm
Causal effects of geography on long-run prosperity — prize-winning natural experiment exploiting a storm-created waterway in 1825 Denmark.
Status: Under review (Restud reject received 2026-05-18 — selecting next target journal)
Geography shapes prosperity — but how much, and through what channels? This paper exploits two natural experiments in northwestern Denmark: a navigable waterway created by a major storm in 1825, and one that was closed sometime between 1086 and 1208. Together they allow clean identification of the causal effect of market access on long-run economic development.
The estimated elasticity of geography-induced market access is 1.6, with persistent effects on trade, fertility, and occupational structure tracing across multiple generations. Occupational changes are measured using OccCANINE.
The paper won the New Researcher Prize at the Economic History Society’s annual conference in 2023.
Links: Working paper (arXiv) · Replication code · Video presentation